時間：4.16（周三）下午14:00—15:00
主題：Analyst Coverage Bias and Forecast Credibility: Evidence from China
作者：餘應敏，彭紅星
地點：學術會堂604
報告人：彭紅星（會計學院2012級博士生）
摘要：This research examines whether analysts? earnings forecasts should be emphasized from the point of their biased stock coverage. We show empirically that analysts are more likely to keep following the stocks with higher positive discretionary accruals on the condition of short supply of analysts in China. However, the experienced star analysts have more motivation to give up on following the stocks with worse earnings information, and both government supervision and outside auditors can weaken this bias. We explore the mechanism for interpreting this bias: if the analyst continues covering the firm with higher unexpected accruals, he or she achieves better performance (higher forecast accuracy) and performing conditions (smaller dispersion). Using multiple measures of earnings management and conducting several robustness checks, we obtain similar inferences. Overall our results suggest that Chinese analysts? forecasts are biased, inefficient and not independent.